🔗 Share this article

Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.

Current Realities

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.